Year 2000 and the Computer

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Articles and Papers

Written About the Millennium

Technology in Government

A call to action.

From "American City and County", May, 1997

Technology in Government

"Ghost in the machine, Year 2000 spooks nation's computers"

by Jeff Green, Assistant Editor

A programming glitch could spell expensive trouble for the nation's cities and counties.

The birth of the new millennium could sound the death knell for many

of the nation's computers. Barring drastic measures, experts say, many

computer-controlled operations worldwide will malfunction at midnight,

December 31, 1999.

Computers will fall prey to the Year 2000 problem, also known as the

Millennium Bug or "Y2K". The problem is simple, its implications nearly

unfathomable. Early in the computer age, programmers designed

computers and applications using just two digits to record calendar years.

A two-digit date field records the year 1997 as "97". Problems arise when

date fields read "00" and computers calculate the dawn of a new century -

the 20th century, that is. Computers using two-digit date fields read the

year "00" as 1900, rendering date-related calculations false and

potentially crashing operations worldwide.

The article continues for several pages, covering a number of Y2K subjects specifically and generally. While the author does not dwell very long on the mechanics of the solution, he makes his point loudly and clearly ... it is time to act!

Gardner Group estimates the global bill for Year 2000 fixes at between $300 and $600 billion. Capers Jones, after including the cost of the inevitable litigation, sets the final number at $1.6 trillion. Once considered to be only a mainframe COBOL problem, increasing awareness has shown the problem to include PC's, elevators, and security systems. "As we get closer and closer to the year 2000, we are going to see an increasing frequency of problems until, of course, the big bang," says Y2K consultant Peter de Jager.

There are those who doubt the magnitude of the problem. Quoted in

December 1996, Florida's House speaker Daniel Webster (R, Orlando),

in response to an estimate of $115 million to fix the State's systems.

"I don't see it as a big problem ... given the way technology is moving, I

guarantee you that if you put it on the Internet, someone will come up

with a solution far cheaper."

(ed. note: There is cheaper and less expensive, and they do not mean the same thing, Speaker Webster. The "cheapest" thing to do is obviously to do nothing, and plan to be out of office by 2000/01/01. The least expensive path would have been to start years ago and gradually move old systems to Y2K compliance while insisting that new projects be compliant. Reality will be somewhere in between...g.)

Awareness runs high, but follow-through among localities is poor. Too few have begun efforts to achieve Y2K compliance, which is a labor-intensive and time consuming process. It might also be pointed out that achieving compliance generally does not improve the computer systems one bit. This is remedial maintenance, not forward-reaching systems enhancements. The bottom line is that Y2K is going to cost a lot of time, effort, and money, and the only reward will be the ability to do business as usual in January of the year 2000.

"A very small percentage of governments are on track to have everything done by the year 2000", says Bill Loller of G2 Research, Mountain View, CA ... but is quick to point out that a lot of businesses and industries are well behind, too.

Among the challenges faced by localities are achieving recognition

at high levels, dealing with often-antiquated and poorly documented systems and

coordinating efforts with disparate entities. Budget issues, such as immutable

salary cycles, will hamper localities. It is not common for governments to make

new money available for the year 2000 problem. Cost is a deterrent, particularly

for a project that seems to over little return on investment.

Municipal data processing has a huge range in sophistication, and internal resources to deal with the Y2K problem vary proportionately. Many localities will be forced into competition for computer talent as the time becomes shorter, and the smaller governments will suffer most as competition increases. Indeed, in early 1997 there are computer companies already turning away new Y2K business. There is an estimated 15% shortage in general computer technical manpower, and that number most certainly increases sharply when discussing the skills and experiences needed to work with 20 year old programming languages and mainframe computers. In the impending shortage, municipalities will fare poorly as they attempt to compete with the private sector. The Federal government will also be competing with local government for talent, as their projects consume anywhere between $2.3 and $30 billion.

In other words, Washington will contribute to the shortage of talent. They will certainly be in no position to ride in and rescue anyone else. The schedule is getting tighter, with conventional wisdom saying that the entire year 1999 needs to be reserved for testing. That means that there are some 20 months to decide what needs to be fixed, select the tools and talent for the job, and to actually correct the code as needed. That leaves a full year cycle for testing ... the recommended bare minimum.

For certain there are localities who are well on their way toward being Y2K ready. Henrico County, VA expects to complete the conversion by late 1998 in-house, and to be $1.2 million below the estimate given by Unisys. Sam Owen, MIS director for Winston-Salem, NC, said the hardest part was getting recognition that Y2K is a major problem that is not going to go away. Both of these projects have been active for about 2 years.

"The denial is huge", says de Jager in response to the hopes for a magic bullet solution. "Many high-level officials literally don't believe it." From other industry experts, the feeling is that the best that can be hoped for is that there will be increasingly better productivity tools. Estimating Year 2000 projects is a difficult job in itself, as there is no central inventory of computer applications, no sole source of knowledge of what needs to be done or how to do it, and a huge diversity in the degree of talent and problems that will be encountered. Estimated could easily be off by 50 percent, but one thing is sure ... if you wait until 1999 it will be more expensive that today.

. . . reviewed May 12, 1997 by gary.