From the July/August 1998 Issue of FamilyPC

 

 

Beware the Year 2000

 

Your PC may be OK, but what about all those bigger business systems?

 

By Robin Raskin

 

By the time you read this, there will be about 500 days left until the new millennium. Also by the time you read this, the computer industry will have more accurately gauged the seriousness of what has come to be known as the Y2K (Year 2000) problem, or the millennium bug. I'm going to tell you all about it -- what it is and how it will affect you -- not to cause undue panic, but so you'll know what's going on as you read more about this uniquely modern computer-centered problem.

 

One thing is certain: No one was thinking too far ahead when they were programming early computers. As a matter of fact, this bug may go down in history as the ultimate example of how shortsightedness can get you into big trouble.

 

The problem? To save memory (which at that time was very expensive), many of the early systems used a shorthand that represented the year by its last two digits (e.g., 1998 became 98). So these systems have no clue what to do when the date turns to January 1, 2000, because their programs will record it not as the next number after 1999, but as zero (double zero, actually).

 

Bugs at Home

 

In the May issue of FamilyPC, Professor Poor, our Help & Advice columnist, put our minds at ease by letting us know that those of us with personal computers will find the Y2K problem more inconvenient than life-threatening. Any PC problems you encounter will be fairly easy to rectify. Most new computers will be just fine without any fixes. For most older computers (pre-1992), downloadable BIOS updates or special fixes will be available from the system manufacturer's Web site or from links at the under-construction Y2K Help page at FamilyPC.com. Several diagnostic tools will also help you quickly ascertain whether your computer can count properly.

 

But even if you fix your system's date, you could have serious problems with software applications that are not prepared to deal with the millennium bug. I wouldn't worry too much about your favorite game, but there could be huge problems with certain categories of software: finance programs, spreadsheets, databases, schedulers, calendar creators, and even e-mail (which is often set to delete mail after a certain date). We know that early versions of Quicken, for example, have the millennium bug. If you have new versions of these programs (from the past year or so), you're not likely to have problems. If you have older versions, you'll need to check carefully on the producer's Web site to see if they are Y2K-compliant. And remember, if you used a spreadsheet program like Excel to build certain macros or applications, you'll need to update them as well.

 

Bugs in Business

 

That brings us around to business. And it's in the business world that the effects of the Y2K problem will be most serious. But the effects won't be confined to corporate networks, spreadsheets, and databases. Through them, this problem could hurt you big time. Remember that any business that does anything relying on dates -- from the IRS to our magazine subscription department to your electric bill-paying system -- is potentially in jeopardy. Oodles of new consulting firms are specializing in the problem.

 

For many businesses, the answer to the problem is to have programmers scrutinize millions and millions of lines of software code to locate and fix dates. This is an expensive and, in spite of some automated tools, time-consuming prospect.

 

Here's a sobering thought: IBM has about 200 billion lines of COBOL (one of the computer languages many large computer systems rely on), and it's estimated that it costs 3 dollars a line to fix the code. That's $600 billion dollars right there. In fact, some companies will find upgrading their code so expensive that they may just decide to replace the old systems with newer ones that run off-the-shelf software that's certified bug-free.

 

For many companies, though, off-the-shelf software is not an option. The question for them is, will they be done in time? According to the market research firm ZD Market Intelligence, only 18 percent of companies have completed their Y2K projects and prepped their systems for the year 2000; 82 percent either haven't completed or haven't started their projects yet. Plus, most of the companies that are already prepared are small businesses. The one exception is the federal government, which has begun Y2K projects in over 73 percent of its agencies.

 

It's not just technical issues that we'll be facing as we hurtle toward the millennium. Big business is notorious for internal politics; deciding which group is responsible for the fix has not been easy. And since few companies budgeted for this expense, it has been a trying time for the corporate bean counters who see nothing but the bug's effect on the bottom line. The millennium bug gives the lawyers something to do, too. Because companies will be held legally responsible for providing working software, these companies may have huge liabilities if the Year 2000 problem is not addressed properly.

 

Michael J. Miller, editor in chief of PC Magazine, a good friend of mine, and a longtime dispeller of myths, warns that one of the biggest myths is that the millennium bug will only go into effect on January 1, 2000. That's not true. If there's a Y2K bug in a big system, it may be having an effect right now. Most of us are already dealing with commitments that go well into the new millennium, such as mortgages, loan payments, and investment accounts.

 

I guarantee, the pace is about to quicken. You're about to start reading more and more scary articles; some will tell you the world is coming to an end, and some will say you should ignore this problem. The truth definitely lies somewhere in between.

 

My advice: Don't panic; do be concerned. For continuing updates on Y2K, visit ZDNet. We'll be working with our sister publications to provide you with the resources you'll need to relax and enjoy the millennium.

 

 

Not Buggin' Yet: Surveys on the Y2K bug reveal that 63 percent of the population is aware of the millennium bug. Of this group, 90 percent is convinced it will be fixed by the year 2000, and 70 percent is extremely confident that technology companies will fix the problem. Previous Columns