Air traffic control could be a weak link in 2000, some suspect

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07/21/98 05:19:59 AM

By Ken Kaye and Katherine Hutt

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Sun-Sentinel, South Florida

(KRT)

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- Shortly before midnight on Dec. 31, 1999, Jane Garvey plans to hop on an airplane in Washington, D.C., and fly to California -- an act some see as courageous.

As her plane crosses through four time zones, the clock striking 12 in each one, air traffic control computers employed to track and communicate with her flight could falter or fail.

Unless these computer systems have been properly reprogrammed to recognize ``20'' as the first two digits of the new year, they will assume the next day is Jan. 1, 1900 -- three years before Wilbur and Orville Wright flew at Kitty Hawk.

Then anything could happen, from minor glitches to a scene out of a Bruce Willis ``Die Hard'' movie.

With the millennium a year and a half away, airlines, airports and aviation authorities around the world are working to ensure the air traffic network is bug-free. But the FAA's highly computerized air traffic control system has come under harsh scrutiny -- by computer experts, aviation industry insiders and government officials -- as a potential weak link.

They fear the agency is moving too slowly to ensure its 655 computer systems will be fixed by 2000, jeopardizing air safety and the smooth operation of the global economy.

But Garvey, administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, expects her midnight ride to be ``utterly normal.'' She is taking the trip to show the naysayers they have underestimated the FAA's ability to prepare for Year 2000 computer problems, or what is now widely known as ''Y2K.''

``I want you to have the assurance that it will be business as usual on Jan. 1, 2000,'' Garvey recently told a gathering of international airline representatives.

No airlines have said they won't fly on the first day of the new millennium. But most say they are watching the FAA's progress carefully.

''We will not fly anywhere we are not comfortable,'' said Tim Smith, spokesman for American Airlines. ``But we are confident that most of the major places we fly to -- and that includes the United States -- will be compliant.''

Garvey promises the 221 most crucial FAA systems, used for air traffic control, will be replaced or reprogrammed by March 1999. Of these, 61 percent have been fixed.

Other systems, including 234 more ``mission critical'' computers, will be compliant by June 1999, the FAA says. The agency is spending $161.5 million to ensure 23 million lines of code, written in 50 different computer languages, will not malfunction.

Still, doubts linger, particularly on Capitol Hill.

``I regret to say that, historically, the FAA's track record for completing large computer and software-intensive projects has been very poor,'' said U.S. Rep. Constance A. Morella, chairwoman of the U.S. House subcommittee on technology, during a hearing earlier this year.

Kenneth M. Mead, inspector general of the U.S. Department of Transportation, said the FAA neglected to address the Year 2000 problem with ``a sense of urgency'' until mid-1997 -- and should have done so years earlier.

Garvey admits the FAA was late focusing on the problem. But she said the agency since has taken an aggressive approach.

``We have energized and accelerated our program. We know the clock is ticking,'' Garvey said.

She has hired Ray Long, a retired IBM programmer, to take inventory of FAA computers and ensure that each is compliant. He will be joining her for the midnight ride in December 1999.

The most important FAA computer system, called ``the host,'' will be replaced in 20 air route traffic control centers in the continental United States and one in Alaska. That includes the one in Miami, which controls more than 500,000 square miles of airspace between Puerto Rico and Orlando.

The host system allows radar controllers to track and separate high-altitude air traffic across the entire country.

Under a $607.2 million program, the FAA will replace older model host computers with a new system by 2000. This originally was planned to be done by 2003, but the timetable was pushed up because of the millennium, said Paul Takemoto, FAA spokesman in Washington, D.C.

In the meantime, to be safe, the agency is reprogramming existing systems to be error-free.

In the worst case, Y2K glitches or failure could lead to airplanes colliding in the sky. But that isn't going to happen, the FAA says. Each critical computer system has a backup, Takemoto said.

``We are so confident in those backup systems that we don't believe there will be a need to ground any planes,'' Takemoto said.

The FAA has the additional burden of coordinating its Y2K problems with international aviation authorities. About 10 percent of the 600 million passengers who flew on U.S. airlines last year landed in foreign destinations.

U.S. Secretary of Transportation Rodney Slater, who has met with the Transport Ministers of Europe, is planning an international summit.

In the meantime, the Montreal-based International Air Transport Association, representing more than 250 carriers, is taking action. Collectively, its members have spent about $1.6 billion to prepare for the Year 2000, spokeswoman Nancy Gautier said, including a $20 million project to study the Y2K readiness of the companies with which they deal. The association plans to survey air traffic systems at each of 2,000 airports in the 185 countries its member airlines serve.

``There might be some areas of the world where you cannot be assured of safety,'' said Hugo Baas, spokesman for KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, which flies to 75 countries and expects its computer systems to be compliant by mid-1999. ``It might lead to grounding some aircraft temporarily or canceling some flights somewhere in the world.''

New generation aircraft, such as the Boeing 757, 767 and 777, also use computers for everything from navigating to managing fuel flow, but the majority of those systems are Year 2000 compliant, said Mary Jean Olsen, spokeswoman for Boeing Co. in Seattle, Wash. Boeing is the world's largest aircraft manufacturer.

``We surveyed thousands of systems, and only three Boeing-supplied systems were identified as being sensitive to date rollout,'' Olsen said. ``But none of these compromised safety of flight or the operation of the aircraft.''

Garvey might have confidence in her New Year's Eve flight, but not all airline passengers share her enthusiasm.

Tamir Rankow, Florida director for the American Society of Travel Agents, recommends travelers wait and see before booking flights.

``I certainly am planning on not being in a car, or in an airplane, or in an elevator, or in anything that is computer-dependent in any way at midnight on Jan. 1, 2000.''

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AP-NY-07-21-98 0615EDT