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July 29, 1998
White House Calm, Dod Nervous About Y2K
By Declan McCullagh
Few were surprised when John Koskinen, the White House's Y2K czar, said yesterday that "it's too early to say that in fact there are going to be major disruptions" due to the Year 2000 problem. Koskinen's work-hard-and-don't-be-scared advice is what the Clinton administration has been saying all along.
But some of the Y2K experts Koskinen brought with him to a National Press Club briefing yesterday offered some dismaying details. Usually if, say, a 4,000-megawatt power plant gives up the ghost, it's no big deal. The electric industry is pretty good at planning for these sorts of breakdowns. But if dozens crash within a few hours on 1-1-00? "It's a very complex system," admitted Michael Gent, president of the North American Electric Reliability Council. "It's probably the most complex system every invented by man, more complicated than a moon shot." Gent nevertheless predicted that even if today were December 31, 1999, "the lights would stay on in most places."
If they go out, it'll be the fault of the private sector, not the feds, Koskinen said. Refuting the now-popular belief that the federal government's computers are in the worst shape, he predicted that "the threats to the economy and the public are not going to be federal systems."
Koskinen also used the briefing to tell reporters that White House-backed Y2K legislation would be introduced tomorrow. It offers some forms of immunity from lawsuits in exchange for releasing information about Y2K readiness. Yet "there is a major timing problem," Koskinen said, since so few days are left before Congress adjourns to campaign -- a not-so-subtle reminder that if Republicans don't see fit to approve the measure this year, the White House will be well positioned to shift the blame.
Already prepared to accept his part is John Hamre, deputy secretary of defense. "I think we're probably going to be the poster child for failure," he said last week during a speech to Fortune 500 executives. "Nobody cares if the Park Services computers don't come on. OK? But what's going to happen if some do in the DoD?"
The threat of widespread computer failures is "what keeps me awake at night," he said. For instance, military payroll systems have an average of 65 interconnections with other computers -- and each needs to be Y2K-OK in time for everything to keep humming. Or, if you want to get spooked, consider America's nuclear arsenal: 76 systems are involved in command and control, Hamre noted. And there are only 521 days left.