Millennium Computer Bomb Seen Unstoppable For Some

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02:17 p.m Aug 19, 1998 Eastern

By Neil Winton, Science and Technology Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - With 500 days to go to the Year 2000, experts said on Wednesday that it may already be too late for many companies to defuse the millennium computer time bomb.

According to the Gartner Group, a U.S. high-technology consultancy, nearly a quarter of all companies worldwide have not yet started work on plans to solve Year 2000 program problems.

This means most of these organizations will effectively be unable to fix their systems in time.

The Gartner Group, which said last year that millennium bomb rehabilitation would cost between $300 billion and $600 billion worldwide, also said in the report published this month that only 50 percent of companies that had projects to eliminate the bomb planned to test their corrected systems.

Experts said this was a dangerous policy, because correcting computer programs often introduced new flaws. Testing was essential.

The millennium computer bomb is a legacy from shortcuts by software writers, who in the name of economy expressed years with just the final two digits rather than four.

When clocks tick past midnight on December 31, 1999, many unrectified computers and chips will interpret the double zero as 1900.

This will turn many computer programs to mush. Unchecked, many public utilities, assembly lines, bank teller machines, traffic lights and lifts may shut down.

Some experts say the problem has been grossly exaggerated by software companies seeking to scare customers into buying the latest, bug-free products.

But Graham Titterington, consultant at London consultancy Ovum, does not share this optimistic view.

``The situation is pretty critical. Most companies are doing

something, but are they doing enough?'' Titterington said in an

interview.

Titterington said for the vast majority of businesses there was no external check on the effectiveness of remedial work.

Mitul Mehta, senior European research manager at Frost & Sullivan in London said time was running out for many companies.

Companies now could only pinpoint vital computer systems for fixing. Less crucial systems would just have to run the risk of crashing and be fixed later, Mehta said.

``Some crucial areas apart from computers are not getting enough attention. I don't think networking companies have got their act together -- manufacturers of routers, switches and network equipment like Bay (Networks Inc) and Cisco (Systems Inc), these kinds of companies,'' Mehta said.

He went on: ``Anybody looking at their systems now is probably too late anyway.''

In its report, Gartner Group millennium research director Lou Marcoccio said that of the 15,000 companies and government agencies surveyed 23 percent had not started millennium bomb projects. Of these, 86 percent were small companies which would not have a chance of correcting systems unless they began immediately, Marcoccio said.

The Gartner report said most western European companies and the U.S. had made good progress. Germany was a notable laggard.

``Eastern Europe, Russia, India, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, Japan, most of South America, most of the Middle East and Central Africa all lag the United States by more than 12 months. ''

``Most of Western Europe is six months behind the United States, except for Germany which is 12 months behind, and France, which is eight to 10 months behind.''

``The U.S. government leads all other country governments by

an even wider margin than the companies in those countries. Most government agencies are significantly behind the United States and extremely lagging overall,'' the report said.

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