What to Do about the Millennium Bug

by Jerry Pournelle

August 20, 1998

 

In his 7/30 article, Don't Panic, Be Practical, Jerry Pournelle assesses the Y2K problem and offers some advice.

 

Following this article, we have set up a special moderated discussion section for those who wish to comment. After you read the article, be sure to add your opinion.

 

Franklin Delano Roosevelt once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. That is the best mantra for considering the Year 2000 problem.

 

Yes, the problem is serious. Yes, it is going to contribute to the economic problems we are seeing in Asia and elsewhere. Yes, it will cause some unexpected shutdowns in computer-controlled industrial processes like oil drilling and shipments.

 

But the republic has endured hurricanes, drought, the Great Freeze -- remember when power plants were not working because the piles of fuel coal were frozen and had to be blasted apart with dynamite -- and worse. These were events of real destruction. Property was destroyed, and people died. Computer failures are hardly in the same league.

 

The situation is serious, but it will not be grave unless we make it so. Widespread sales of stocks, withdrawal of money from savings and the exaggerated hoarding of food, fuel and inventories can transform the Year 2000 bug into a major disaster.

 

The solution: preparation, not panic

 

Y2K: Only grave if

we make it so

Now, what should you do? First, do not panic. Expect inconveniences, some major, and plan around them. Do not schedule critical events for January 2000.

 

Then go to www.wdcy2k.org and read the testimony of Bruce Webster to a House subcommittee. Webster has the most realistic and balanced assessment of the problem.

 

Then test your computer systems. That is not difficult, but it is sufficiently inconvenient that many people have not done it.

 

What you must do is schedule a time when it will not be a disaster if your computer systems do not work for a couple of days. Crank the date up to 23:30 of Dec. 31, 1999, on all your computers. Let the date roll over and keep operating at that false date for another 24 hours. See what happens.

 

If something fails, you know what you will face. Plan on taking care of it, either by replacing the system or by hiring human workers to do the job the machine was doing.

 

Next, have standby equipment. For most businesses, today's desktops and laptops that do understand the year 2000 are far more powerful than the old iron that may not be aware that years have four, not two, digits. For less than $2,000, you can buy a network-capable machine far better than anything that existed when most of the Y2K problem code was written. Take advantage of that.

 

Troubleshooting for software and embedded chips

 

Regarding software: Despite the protestations of purists who hate modern programming tools that use computer design tools known as "wizards," the fact is it is now fairly easy to create business programs tailored to your needs. Use them. If you are using older software because it is a pain to convert, this is a good time to modernize.

 

That is the general run of businesses. Now for the embedded processor problem.

 

Webster and others have concluded that it is between unlikely and impossible that all the chips controlling manufacturing processes can be replaced before 2000, so there will be glitches, failures. A few glitches may be critical -- city water supplies overloaded with chlorine, that sort of thing. These are just going to have to be addressed as any other disaster.

 

Most problems are critical in the other direction: Things stop working. Oil is not pumped, fertilizer is not made. No one knows how widespread this condition will be, and that scares people. Yet once again, remember that every one of those chips will fail some day.

 

The death rate for both people and computer chips is the same over time, one to a customer. Presumably, the world turns when computer chips fail. Any business designed on the premise that their control systems are immortal and always would be failure free is a good candidate for bankruptcy. You would not want the people who designed that to work on anything else.

 

In the vast majority of cases there is a contingency plan. Consider what you would do in the face of a real disaster. If that most likely would cause you to run in circles flapping your arms like a chicken, it is not too early to consider alternatives.

 

The makings of a Y2K miracle

 

Do I discount the Y2K problem? That depends. Yes, of course, I discount the view of survivalists who advocate running for the hills and those who believe we will have a worldwide depression. No, I do not necessarily discount the opinions of those who believe we are headed for a recession. But then I never have thought we could continue with stocks valued at 50 to 70 times earnings without a strong correction. Y2K will merely exacerbate the effects of that correction.

 

After World War II, Germany lay in ruins. The Marshall Plan headed off widespread starvation, but the recovery planned by the experts was not working. Then Konrad Adenaeur and the American proconsul, Lucius Clay, proclaimed the end of economic regulation. The result of this economic freedom was the German Economic Miracle.

 

Note that it was done without computers and without government expertise. And remember that most of the world was built without computers.

 

The organizations least prepared and least likely to be prepared for the Y2K crashes are government bureaucracies. If you believe we cannot live without bureaucratic services, if you believe only government can save us from Y2K, then you are right to predict doom. Government will not save us.

 

But if you believe free people built America, the prospect of widespread government impotence in addressing the potential fallout of Y2K may have a different message.