August 19, 1998

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August 19, 1998

Pessimism Rules At Y2K Conference

Filed at 6:47 p.m. EDT

By Mo Krochmal for TechWeb, CMPnet

Ed Yardeni, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, marked the 500th day before the millennium Wednesday by gathering experts to discuss the impact of the year 2000 bug in an online conference.

Yardeni, described by some as a Y2K alarmist, has predicted the computer bug will cause a global recession. At the online gathering, which is accessible at www.y2kactionday.com, Yardeni's guests did not paint an optimistic picture.

"Books are coming out, a movie is coming out in Hollywood," said Tony Valletta, vice president of technology firm SRA International. "We will soon be in the panic mode."

Last week, the Gartner Group published a year 2000 update study that indicated 23 percent of companies have not yet started any remediation effort. Analysts have said that testing fixes may take as long as creating the fixes.

The year 2000 problem affects computer software that uses two digits to represent the year in software date fields. When the year 2000 arrives, these computer systems could interpret the year 2000 as 1900.

"It's not just a technical issue. It's a management issue, a political issue, and a social issue," said Jefferey Modic, president of the American Information Engineering Corporation.

Rep. David Dreier (R-Calif.), told participants he doesn't foresee the imminent passage of a bill to limit companies' legal liability for problems caused by the bug.

"I'm hard-pressed to see that happen," he said. "It's a very short window of opportunity."

Opposition to the bill, from the American Trial Lawyers Association and the Clinton administration will also hamper the bill's chances of getting passed quickly, said Dreier. "Some people out there are saying that the only thing that will drive the solution to this problem is the threat of a lawsuit," he said. "That's preposterous."