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You're Sick of the Game! Well, now, that's a Shame
by Peter de Jager
In any battle there are those who stand their ground at the front lines and those who turn tail, leaving their companions to their fate.
When a ship goes down, there are crew members who bail water until the last, and those who take to the water leaving the passengers alone.
In either case, those who ultimately win the battle or save the ship owe nothing to those who fled, and in the situations where the battle or the ship is lost, those who chose not to help contributed directly to the loss.
Call those who stay on by any name you wish, either heroes or fools, the others are often called cowards.
The press and the internet are now full of those who are truly crying the sky is falling and there is no hope. That your only choice to survive the coming catastrophe is to slink off into the hills, prepared to survive the collapse of civilization. It's amazing to me that we went from denial to despair with nary a stop between.
It would be amusing if it were not so sad. What a pitiful commentary on our well proven ability to overcome adversity.
I've been at this battle longer than most and my message has always been the same. The code is broken, let's fix it. In the beginning I was described as a doomsayer... today I'm seen as a moderate. Amazingly, by some, I'm now even described as a Pollyanna!
The message never changed. What changed was the general awareness of the problem.
I have never underestimated the size or the severity of the problem. The code is broken. If today (August 5th 1998) were the first day of 2000, then civilization as we know it would stop and people would die. Having food, guns and money would be a good idea. But, it's not January 1st 2000, it's today.
We are now working on the problem.
Yes, we started late.
Yes, some management folks are still clueless.
Yes, our leaders are nervous and at a loss as to what to do.
Yes, the problem is serious.
So?
Awareness and understanding continue to grow. As it grows, more and more unnecessary activities are being put to the side. As we move forward, urgency increases and the difficult decisions are finally being made. We're finally facing the problem and beginning to treat it with the respect it deserves.
Will we fix everything? Of course not. But I honestly believe the mission critical stuff will get done. And where it doesn't get done, work arounds can, and will, be found.
Why this belief that, what must get done, will get done? For 7 years I've been baffled by the thick headedness of some individuals, the press, management and the politicos... How could they ignore and deny what could be, and was, demonstrated time and time again -- that the code upon which society depends is broken...
...But I have seen one behavior pattern play out over and over again. Once someone gets it, no matter how difficult it was for them to get it, once they get it, they become fanatics about fixing it. Nothing else matters, everything else is put to the side and they become maniacal in their dedication. And, perhaps more importantly, they infect others with their zeal.
Consider some of the absolute worst cases imaginable. Please note, I'm not saying the following are going to happen or are even likely, I'm using the worst examples I can find to make a point. The point is, we're not helpless children lost at sea in a fierce storm, we're grown ups, capable of fixing things when they break:
Social Security checks don't print on Jan 1 2000?
Reprint the printfiles for the cheques you printed last week. And do that week after week until you fix what you now know must be fixed. A perfect solution? No! It stinks to high heaven. But it serves 99% of our immediate need.
Train switches don't work automatically?
Put men with lanterns along the tracks. An inhuman use of people, but the trains will move. If the switches no longer have manual capability then replace them with those than do... none available? Build it! Take a piece of track and lay it down so it can be moved manually by a gang of men using crowbars... a ludicrous image? Of course it is... will it work? It worked for more than a hundred years... Will it handle the current level of traffic? Of course not, but Beanie Babies are not a vital part of our economy, don't ship them for a few weeks... or would you rather curl up in a corner and die?
FAA not ready or not 100% certain the systems will work okay?
Don't fly the planes at the same rate you're currently flying them. There are airports all over America which have no computers, no radar, no electronics, period. Planes take off and land every day. Is this a desirable situation? Of course not. But would this slow down in air travel cause the death of civilization? I sincerely doubt it.
No dial tone? Worldwide?
That's unlikely in the extreme. Why? Because no matter how pessimistic you are, you have to concede that some of the people we've hired must be competent. So... no worldwide lack of communications.
No dial tone? In local areas?
We've already been without dial tone for days and weeks at a time. Ice Storms, hurricanes, earthquakes etc. Etc. are all recent examples. Did we survive them? You're reading this, so I guess your answer is yes.
Nuclear power stations go boom?
After a while the solutions become childlike... turn the damn thing off if you're not 100% sure. Will turning it off have an impact on the power grids? Of course it will, but if planned for, the systems can handle the load. Will there be problems with the Grid? Of course there will, but once isolated the problems can either be fixed or bypassed.
A worldwide recession?
Ahem... been through a few of those myself. Lived to tell the tale.
You get the general idea -- for every problem, there's either an ugly way to avoid it, or an even uglier way to cope with it. Let's move on.
Remember, part of the year 2000 problem, perhaps the largest part, is that we don't know what will fail in advance, so we have to fix everything which might break.
However when it breaks, and we'll see enough computer breaks to last us a lifetime, we almost immediately know where the break is. True... we'll fix a problem, only to have a new one crop up and have to fix it again and have the same thing happen again and again. This is not going to be pretty, but the notion that we should all run for the hills is truly silly.
Why? Because it's like finding a hole in the boat, giving up immediately, and jumping overboard, only to either drown anyway in the deep water or looking like a fool standing in a foot of water.
Nobody, but nobody, knows how this one will shake out. Let's at least try to fix it, before we give up.
Don't misunderstand me. I'm not against contingency plans for applications and/or services. I live in Canada and they have lots of snow up here. It gets rudely cold in winter. Having a generator in the garage has always been a good idea.
If I go for a long drive with my family in the dead of winter, it is irresponsible for me as a parent not to have some emergency supplies in the trunk.
But moving to the South Sea islands to escape the mere possibility of an ice storm AND advising everyone else to follow me, is irresponsible at a totally different level.
The year 2000 project is most likely the largest, and most important, project we'll ever attempt. We could, I guess, look up at it and say to ourselves, that's too big for little 'ol me and run away to mommy.
For myself? I guess I'm just an arrogant SOB, I've never yet come across a problem too big to tackle...
So I guess my final question to you is this... are you an arrogant SOB? If you are, then hang on, the ride gets interesting from here on in.
Yours in defiance of defeatism,
Peter de Jager
pdejager@year2000.com
"You're sick of the game!" Well, now, that's a shame
you're young and you're brave and you're bright.
"You've had a raw deal!" I know - but don't squeal,
Buck up, do your damnedest, and fight.
It's the plugging away that will win you the day,
So don't be a piker, old pard!
Just draw on your grit; it's so easy to quit:
It's the keeping-your-chin-up that's hard!
From, "The Quitter" by Robert Service