You can run but you can't hide: Y2K

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By JERRY HEASTER - Columnist

Date: 08/18/98 22:15

It's 500 days until the dawn of the year 2000, and only recently has the general public begun to comprehend the magnitude of the potential computer problem posed by the looming zeros.

A year ago, the mention of the so-called Y2K challenge to computer systems brought puzzled looks from most people. Nowadays, concern over the general chaos that 2000's arrival may bring seems to rank right up there with fear of a stock market collapse. Wherever thoughtful people gather, a frequent question is, "What do you think will happen when 2000 arrives?"

The answer? Nobody knows; nor do they have any way of knowing. The evolving high-tech world of the last half of the 20th century leaves humankind in uncharted territory. Computer programmers have routinely economized on memory space by abbreviating year dates with only the last two digits. Thus, the fear is that 2000 will be misread as 1900 and cause massive systemic failures.

This has led to predictions of everything from global financial system meltdown to airplanes falling out of the sky shortly after the clock strikes midnight on Dec. 31, 1999. It has also led to predictions that Y2K alarms are merely scams perpetrated by those who stand to profit handsomely from dealing with a nonproblem.

The reality probably lies somewhere between the panic of the doomsters and the denial of the unconcerned. While it's difficult to imagine the chaos envisioned by some, it's reasonable to expect at least temporary disruptions in both our personal and commercial lives. How extensive these disruptions will be is anybody's guess, but pretending there won't be any seems folly, because computers are critical to most normal activities.

The economy is likely to slow, but whether it will lead to a recession depends on how severe the disruptions become. While some economists warn that an economic downturn is a very real possibility, the good news is that any recession is expected to be relatively short, followed by a solid recovery.

As for the 2000 bomb's effect on investments, the cost of fixing the problem will be a drag on profits for the next few years for many corporations. This no doubt means some companies will see their stock prices diminished by this extraordinary hit to earnings.

On the more personal and mundane level, you might experience problems getting your government check, money from an ATM, or credit card transaction approval. Your electric power and phone service might be disrupted, your auto may perform erratically or not at all, and your VCR may go on the blink, among other things.

Why? Computer dependency is more ubiquitous than most people realize. This is why nobody can say with certainty how bad the 2000 bug hassles will become.

Unfortunately, the enterprises that haven't begun to work on the problem probably can't resolve it between now and Jan. 1, 2000, even if they start today. Moreover, those who've had the foresight to prepare for 2000's coming will in many cases find themselves at the mercy of those who haven't. Even those best prepared for disaster will become hapless victims of those who've procrastinated for too long.

Don't expect any help from Uncle Sam, either. For the first time since the federal government came to be perceived as the country's primary problem-solver, government will find itself as vulnerable to this threat as companies and individuals.

@txr:Jerry Heaster's column appears Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. To share a comment, call (816) 889-7827 and enter 2301. Send e-mail, including a telephone number, to jheaster@kcstar.com.