Peter de Jager's Testimony to House of Representatives

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Testimony to Science Committee

Peter de Jager

May 14th 1996

Title:

Unjustified Optimism

Computer Practitioners are the most optimistic people in the world. Despite all evidence to the contrary we believe the next application we write will be bug free. We believe the bug we just found is the last one. We believe the next release of a software product will solve all the errors in the prior release and introduce no new ones.

Sadly, these beliefs are totally without foundation. Our clients know this. We have a reputation of always missing delivery deadlines. Have we earned this reputation? The facts speak for themselves. According to studies done by Capers Jones, fewer than 14% of projects larger than 100,000 function points in size (about 12,500,000 lines of C code) are delivered on time.

We also believe we can solve the Year 2000 problem in time.

The Year 2000 project is unique, four elements of that uniqueness are;

1.The deadline cannot be missed.

2.It is an immovable deadline.

In the past, if we missed a delivery date, we could continue to use what we used yesterday. When the Year 2000 arrives, the programs we used yesterday will be useless. Unless the applications are fixed and available on January 1st, all businesses lose the ability to do business. I am at a loss as to how to communicate that message any simpler. I will leave it to you to contemplate what happens to the world-wide economy if businesses lose the ability to do business.

3.It bears no relationship to the size of the task.

Regardless if you have a single program to fix, or 75,000 programs to fix, the deadline is the same. Usually we set deadlines by the size of the task and how long we estimate it will take to complete that task with available resources. The nature of this problem removes that part of the planning process. The deadline is January 1st. 2000.

You will have heard from some witnesses that you can 'rest assured' they will complete this project on time. This is nothing more than unjustified optimism. You must weigh their testimony against their past track record of delivering on time. You must then adjust their testimony further, to take into account the following realities.

1.They cannot tell you in detail how large their task is.

e.g.. How many lines of code or applications they manage.

2.They cannot tell you when their software vendors will be year 2000 compliant, because the vast majority of vendors have not yet disclosed these release schedules.

e.g.. Operating systems, system utilities, 3rd party applications

3.They cannot tell you when their business partners will be changing their data formats and how will those data formats change.

e.g.. When will the Federal Reserve Bank change from 2 to 4 digit years?

And finally, and perhaps most importantly, we come to the 4th unique aspect of this problem.

4.We share the same deadline.

This adds a very large, unpredictable and non-technical complication to the problem. What will organizations do, to make sure they don't miss a deadline they cannot afford to miss? They'll want to hire the best and will be willing to pay whatever is required to get them. Let's rephrase that. They'll raid other organizations for the best, most skilled, most respected.

The worst thing to happen to a project team working to a deadline that cannot be missed is to lose the key team members. Any project subject to this risk has no right to claim we can 'rest assured'

The situation is critical. More than 65% of North American businesses have not yet begun to address this problem. For many it's already too late. There are less than 140 weekends left before December 31st 1998. You should be complete by then, so that you can allocate all of 1999 to test the hundreds of thousands of error prone changes you've introduced into your systems.

65% of North American businesses are unaware of even this minimal planning strategy.

We have no time for 'Unjustified Optimism.' Nor have we time for cautious optimism. We have time only for a highly accelerated sense of urgency, a meagre allotment of time rapidly slipping away.

I have kept my testimony brief, because I want to keep my message as concise and as clear as possible.

1.The deadline is real, immovable and cannot be missed. 2.We have less than 140 weekends left to complete the task. 3.Less than 35% of North American Businesses have begun. 4.Those active find this to be the most complex project they've ever attempted. 5.There are unique non-technical obstacles in our path. 6.The IS community suffers under a delusion of infallible confidence, despite a proven track record of on-time delivery no greater than 14% 7.The sense of urgency required to complete this task on time is absent.

I wish to thank you for the opportunity to testify on this matter, I hope that my testimony today, contributes in some small way to the arguments and testimony already presented.

If we have any hope of delivering on time in the future, despite our record of delivering late in the past, then we must replace unjustifiable optimism with determined urgency.

Along with that, I wish us luck, we're going to need it.

Yours truly

Peter de Jager

You can contact Peter de Jager via E-mail: pdejager@year2000.com