August 24, 1998, Issue: 729

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Section: ...Yada, Yada, Yada...

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Y2K Hype Can End Up Hurting All Of Us

Wayne Rash

I flipped the page to read some more about the coming Year 2000 disaster. This time the author of the book wrote about how a helicopter's engine suddenly quit at the stroke of midnight, which resulted in the immediate crash of the aircraft. Later in the book, an airliner plummeted to the earth because it couldn't navigate after 2000 began.

A major theme of the book was an unlikely war that starts as the Chinese, emboldened by the fact that their weapons are too stupid to have Y2K problems, attempt to invade Hawaii.

I closed my copy of Jason Kelly's "Y2K: It's Already Too Late," a Tom Clancy-esque technology thriller, and rubbed my eyes. Kelly, it seems, was predicting the worst-case scenario for the Y2K problems, and then adding some.

Of course, Kelly's book is fiction, so it doesn't have to be true. On the other hand, it's intended as a serious depiction of the problem. In his publicity material, Kelly claims to create serious discussion with his fictional treatment of the problem. Unfortunately, creating a serious discussion only works if the catalyst is in itself credible.

In this manner, Kelly shares the same problems with his vision as do some of the more fringe members of the Y2K consulting crowd. The predictions out there by some are enough to make you think that the sky itself is suffering a Y2K-compliance problem and will fall on New Year's Day. It's no wonder why some consultants and consulting companies are making such dire predictions. After all, if they manage to panic enough companies, they can charge higher fees. The problem is, these histrionics aren't helping legitimate efforts to solve the Y2K problem responsibly.

The reason scare tactics don't help has to do with credibility. Once managers realize they've been had by overstatements of the problem, they're going to start questioning the basis of the Y2K issue itself, and this will delay the necessary fixes. This hurts everyone, because it corrupts the worldwide flow of information, causing a degradation in commerce that will, in turn, bring a recession in early 2000.

The fact is, we already have enough problems with getting the Y2K problem solved. Hurting the credibility of those who accurately describe the issue through self-serving ends, such as hiking consulting fees or hyping book sales, doesn't help the problem, and in fact hurts it.

Although Kelly's book is unlikely to be widely read and thus will have little effect, it's part of a larger issue. One hopes that responsible managers will be able to see beyond the hype and realize that there are real, solvable problems that need their attention.

Wayne Rash is senior technology editor at InternetWeek. He can be reached at wrash@mindspring.com or wrash@cmp.com.