Dates in 1999 likely to attract computer bug

 

Experts say many not ready for early Year 2000 trouble

 

08/26/98

 

By Jim Landers / The Dallas Morning News

 

 

WASHINGTON - Government agencies and businesses trying to ensure their computers don't conk out on Jan. 1, 2000, face other trap doors arriving as much as a year earlier.

 

Once 1999 arrives, some computers will start collating records, initiating printouts or simply going offline, thanks to a programming practice of ordering summary actions once "99" appears.

 

The biggest "99" jinx next year will be Sept. 9 - 9-9-99. Mainframe computers that handle large volumes of records for accounting, billings or payrolls are thought especially vulnerable.

 

"It's probably very pervasive," said Jim Johnson, director of Global Renovation Systems with the CIO Services branch of EDS in Austin. "If you're assuming you've got until Jan. 1, 2000, to get things done, you're making a big mistake."

 

Worldwide, millions of computers and other automated devices are heading for an information train wreck on Jan. 1, 2000, when their two-digit year-date fields roll to "00." Many machines are not programmed to recognize "00" as 2000. Some will assume the year is 1900, while others will not know what the date is.

 

The resulting confusion will shut down many systems, while others will start behaving erratically and with erroneous information.

 

Programmers and engineers are laboriously going through billions of lines of computer code to track down the problems and install fixes for the problem, also known as Y2K or the millennium bug. But thousands of companies and some local government agencies haven't gotten started yet.

 

Some will discover they have less time than they thought.

 

John Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said several aspects of the date-change problem will begin in 1999.

 

He said he is less worried about Jan. 1, 1999, than Sept. 9.

 

"Generally, people looking for code are looking for it," he said.

 

Edward Black, president of the Computer and Communications Industries Association, agreed that "99" problems are surfacing.

 

"There are different areas where there are cycles, events that trigger these problems. Some are 60 days, some 90 days," he said. "By no means it is just hypothetical until December 31, 1999."

 

Mr. Johnson said EDS crews dealing with the millennium bug have come across many "99" glitches.

 

"There are all sorts of applications that compare data to 99 and then say, "Go do something special,' " he said.

 

Because many companies and the federal government use fiscal years that will start well before Jan. 1, 2000, those systems will start hitting problems next year, too.

 

"Everybody who has a fiscal year that starts before Jan. 1, 2000, will have to deal with it," Mr. Koskinen said.

 

"A lot of companies will be done with remedial work before then. But a lot of companies are going to have troubles in '99," he said.

 

U.S. government agencies are working according to a schedule that calls for completing reviews and fixes to computer code by Oct. 1 of this year. The agencies will then have until Dec. 31 to test their fixes.

 

President Clinton has set a deadline for full federal compliance with the Year 2000 computer problem by March 1999 - in part because of the hidden dangers of 1999.

 

The Pentagon, the Energy Department and the Health Care Financing Administration "have a long way to go," Mr. Koskinen said.

 

Newer computer systems are less likely to have "99" problems, though they will not escape the millennium bug. But older mainframe computers used in batch applications may be susceptible, Mr. Johnson said.

 

"Unless those systems are changed to anticipate that, all sorts of things could happen. The system could go offline. It could corrupt the data for a while," he said. "The older the system, the more common it is."

 

Embedded computer chips that read dates in everything from automobiles to fax machines are not considered susceptible to "99" problems, Mr. Koskinen said.

 

While that still leaves lots of vulnerable computers, Mr. Koskinen said some problems in 1999 is a better scenario than all of the problems arriving with the millennium.

 

"It serves as a warning for what lies ahead," he said. "And we'll be learning the impacts of the problem."