Web posted Monday, August 24, 1998

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2000, the year time runs out

By ANNE-MARIE KELLEY

Post staff writer

Imagine waking up on a Saturday morning and having your electricity off, your phone service down and your water not running.

When you go to get in your car to escape your home, it doesn't work because the computer system inside is malfunctioning. You look for your morning paper, but it's not there either.

A walk to the grocery store to get some coffee would only end in further frustration, because the store remains closed since its cash registers have failed and can't seem to read bar code. Even the convenience store is a dead end, because you're out of cash and the credit card machine isn't working.

While this kind of Saturday morning might seem like your worst nightmare, it's actually what some computer experts are predicting the morning of January 1, 2000 will be like for people across the country. Others say it will more likely just be a morning of a few minor inconveniences.

On this date, at 12:01 a.m. computers everywhere will face the challenge: are they 2000 compliant or will they crash?

"Anyone who says they know what is going to happen is lying," said Neal Pollack, the owner of PressPlay Computer Consulting and the host of Geek Speak on KDNK Radio in Carbondale. "Nobody knows what's inside all of the expert systems."

The year 2000 computer problem, also referred to as Y2K or the millennium bug, is based on the fact that many computers -- particularly mainframes -- use date fields that can only handle two digits. As a result, the machine reads 1998 as 98.

On Jan. 1, 2000, these computers will interpret 00 as 1900, and experts say the computer will most likely either spew out inaccurate or incomplete data, or crash.

With a typical family home today having more computer power in it than an entire college campus had 20 years ago, people everywhere are starting to take precautions for Y2K.

Pollack said most PC users don't need to be afraid of what is going to happen to their home computer. While some older programs may be affected, new programs have most likely been developed to handle the switch to the new millennium.

"The main thing to do if you have sensitive data is to contact your software vendor and check for 2000 compliance. If it's not, see if there is an upgrade or a patch," Pollack said. "The other advice is backup early and backup often."

For businesses that rely on mainframes or expert systems with imbedded computer chips, deciphering what effect Y2K will have on their business is much more complicated.

"The dilemma is the embedded chip," said Ed Green, the new Garfield County administrator. "Most are of Japanese origin and the pedigree is unknown."

According to a recent speech by President Bill Clinton to the National Academy of Sciences, one oil drilling rig could have as many as 10,000 separate computer chips in it.

"Consider just one major bank, Chase Manhattan," Clinton said. "It must work through 200 million lines of code, check 70,000 desktop computers, check 1,000 software packages from 600 separate vendors."

On a smaller scale, local businesses and governmental bodies are having to go through the same kind of exercises to see if their systems can handle the transition to the year 2000.

Mesa National Banks recently sent a letter to all of its customers informing them the bank has formed a task force committee to review the bank's systems and develop any necessary corrective measure. While the letter states management "is confidant the Bank will have both tested and modified any systems by a self-imposed deadline of December 31, 1998," bank officials are also recommending people obtain documentation on all of their financial records prior to year end 1999.

Valley View Hospital has already determined its major computer systems are 2000 compliant. According to Michael Cain, who's in charge of VVH's information services, they are now concentrating on an inventory of life-sustaining equipment such as the respirator monitors.

"We're not going to take any chances," Cain said. "We'll have back up and manual procedures ready in case anything goes wrong."

Holy Cross Electric is taking a similar approach as far as New Year's Eve 1999.

"Our first priority is to keep the electricity on," said Bob Gardner. "If on December 31 everything goes off, we'll have our guys standing by to turn it back on manually. We're not as concerned about getting our bills out on time."

Gardner said he's been working with the Colorado 2000 Council and the National Electric Reliability Council for some time now to figure out how to get the kinks out of the system before the millennium rolls in.

While Yvonne Gehrett, the computer coordinator for Glenwood Springs, said the city is in fairly good shape because two thirds of its equipment was just leased in 1998 and is 2000 compliant, Allen Sartin, Garfield County's assistant county administrator said the county still has some challenges to meet.

"We have the potential to need to change three or four systems," Sartin said, which in a worst case scenario could cost between $50,000 to $200,000 per system.

Prior to his coming on board, Garfield County hadn't taken any steps to address Y2K. As a result, Sartin said the county is slightly behind where it should be in addressing the compliance issue, and he and the county administrator have put the issue on the fast track.

"We'll be fine, but what about our third party suppliers?" Sartin asked. "We could be very successful getting our stuff converted, but we could be ground to a halt because the banks gone bad or the office supplies aren't being delivered. Those kinds of things could be disastrous to us."

A recent Wells Fargo bank study indicates that of the small businesses that know about the problem, only half intend to do anything to address it. As a result, it's likely even the best prepared large company could expect to run into some difficulties doing business at the beginning of the new millennium.